Teknik Informatika S1
THE RISK MODELING EVALUATION HANDBOOK Rethinking Financial Risk Management Methodologies in the Global Capital Markets
Financial engineers should study past crises and model breakdowns rather
than simply extrapolate from recent successes. The first part of this chapter
reviews the 2008 disaster in convertible bonds and convertible arbitrage.
Next, activity in nineteenth-century option markets is examined to explore
the importance of modern theory in pricing derivatives. The final section
reviews the linkage between theory and practice in bridge building. The
particularly interesting analogy is the constructive direction taken by engineers
after
the
highly
visible,
catastrophic
failure
of
the Tacoma Narrows
Bridge in Washington in 1940. Engineers were reminded that highly realistic
models
may
increase
the
likelihood
of
failure if they reduce the buffer
against factors ignored by the model. Afterward, they focused efforts on
making bridges robust enough to withstand eventualities they did not fully
understand and could not forecast with accuracy.
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